The
Art of Decision Making
By Dena Falken
Decision making is a process based on
identifying decisions, gathering information and evaluating alternative
solutions. Using a step-by-step decision-making process can help you make more
informed and thoughtful decisions by organizing relevant information and
defining alternatives. This approach increases the likelihood of choosing the
most satisfying alternative. Decision making is about facing a question like
"to be or not to be" i.e. to be the one you want to be or not to be.
Managers are always seen on the platform, where they always require making
important decisions because their crucial decisions ultimately shape, guide and
direct our future. Decision making is described as the economy of thinking
In decision making our mind plays an important role
because mind is the heart of any decision making process. To make a good and
effective decisions one should stay with the problem for a longer time. Better
decisions are the result of good coordination between mind and body. A better
understanding of the mind can lead to setting new priorities as to what is
taught and learned. Decision making should be rational that means it must be
logical and should pursue an orderly path from problem identification to
reaching a solution.
This is a life-altering perception,
especially for people who believe that the ability of decision making always
falls under the tower of ‘STRENGTHS”
and “WEAKNESS”. If you think deeper,
I believe decision making is more about “ACHIEVEMENTS”
and “OPPORTUNITIES”.
The pursuit of perfection
in our decisions adds unnecessary pressure and often leads to “analytic
paralysis.” Nobody likes being wrong, but we have to shake our fear and accept
that decision-making involves taking risks: sometimes we will do it well, other
times we will not do it. Errors are part of learning.
Refuse
to Face Reality
We see things as we would like them to be, confusing
wishful thinking and reality. For example, 75% of drivers think they are above
average behind the wheel, which is statistically impractical.
Faced with a scenario, we
tend to take a position and may fail to see beyond it, ignoring what could be
better options outside of that one. Also, we tend to amplify the positive
aspects of our position and minimize the negative aspects.
Blindness
To Facts
The way a situation is presented to us and how we
present it to ourselves affects our final decisions. For example, when some
cancer patients were informed that the one-year survival rate after surgery was
68% a significant percentage opted for this operation. Meanwhile, when other
people learned that 32% of patients die within one year of the operation, no
one chose to undergo it. The same information was given but presented
differently.
To avoid falling into
blindness, it is important to look for alternatives and consider them from
different angles. Finally, wait a bit before making the decision.
Going
With The Flow
There is something worse than being wrong: being the
only one wrong. Doing everything others do is easier and, more importantly, can
save us from embarrassment. We saw it with the dot-com bubble, for example.
Everyone wanted to invest in technology companies when the bubble was rising,
even though most investors knew little about it.
The problem with
imitating (and not thinking before deciding) is that we eliminate the
possibility of finding wiser alternatives than what is fashionable.
Rushing
And Risking
Before deciding hastily, we should consider whether a
decision is urgent. We tend to rush into activities, barring things off our
list to feel fulfilled. But all we do in a hurry is to take unnecessary risks.
Intuition
Intuition can be an
advantage, but it leads to mistakes if we let it prevail over analytical
thinking. Also, it's important to test your intuition with a cheap experiment.
Married
To Ideas
It is difficult for us to
change previous decisions, even if maintaining the status quo is ineffective or
harmful.
Effects
Sometimes we don't
consider the consequences of a decision. Or we only consider the most direct
and immediate effects and ignore the side effects. And that could cause bigger
problems than what we were trying to solve.
This happened to Titanic
officials who wanted to arrive at their destination 24 hours ahead of schedule
to reassure critics who said their big ship would be slow. They ignored the
glacier warning, a warning that should have been delayed for safety reasons.
Agreement
We often think that
collective decisions are more effective, but this is not always true. Reaching
consensus also has disadvantages: it can take longer, responsibilities are
often spread out, and people can't speak their minds because of peer pressure
or a desire to be accepted.
Implementation
Decision-making does not complete
the decision-making process: its implementation and monitoring are also
important. However, some solutions are not implemented in practice due to our
limitations (eg lack of will, determination, or time) or external factors (eg
lack of authority or support).
It is important to think
about the implementation of decisions. And that means assessing our own ability
to take a specific approach and accepting that others have their own interests
and needs.
What
To Decide?
The leader decides what is under his
jurisdiction. This obvious statement leads to a dysfunctional abyss when
ignored. At some point, we all have experienced leaders who want to decide
everything and end up destroying the autonomy they clearly gave them.
This is the difference
between strategy and tactics, the former being the framework within which the
latter can be developed. In other words, the strategy defines the vision and
the main steps to achieve it. Determining strategy is the leader's prerogative.
Tactics are related to operational activities. They are often placed "in
the hands" of younger players as long as they have a good understanding of
the leader's goals, which means they understand his vision.
How
Do You Increase Your Chances Of Making The Right Decision?
A good decision is always declared 'good'
later because the consequences of a decision often allow it to be defined as
good or bad. However, we cannot predict the future. However, we can reduce the
degree of uncertainty by dynamically analyzing the relevant factors that lead
to the identification of "possible futures" that will determine the
development of the strategy, or "perspective" strategies, as it is
known.
Therefore, preparing for
a decision is like looking ahead as if you were trying to dissipate the “mist
of war”. This cannot be improvised. On the contrary, it is a rigorous and
collective process that includes analyzing all the data that may influence the
achievement of goals (such as environment, background, and actors) and an
attempt to determine the relative impact of the "course". events.
“Many thinking methods and specific decision tools (strategy games, serious
games, simulations, etc.) were developed for managers. They all have their
strengths and weaknesses.
The
Art Of Making Decisions
After all, what can we
learn from this? Smart strategic decision-making isn't just for a few people
like Steve Jobs, a character that would be quoted in the economic arena today.
Let's look at the problem from the other side. Decision-making is one of the
strongest acts of management. We often judge the management style of a person
with decision-making authority through the prism of a decision, even to the
extent that decision avoidance can be a management system in itself.
Learn to lead and then improve your management skills
throughout your personal and professional life; strengthen your leadership
skills, gain experience looking for specific situations, learn from mistakes,
compare successes, count on competent teams and all this to make the most of
your knowledge and relationships with others and always strive to improve your
"knowledge of the world" "go deeper; isn't this the surest path
to the Holy Grail of good decision making? For all these methods there are
tools and plans for personal and group development.
For
Decision-Making?
Model
for the best possible choices
Some decisions are so simple that you
barely realize you are making them, while others are time-consuming, risky, and
anxious. The decision can be made or interrupted by the project or the company
as a whole. And they often solve complex and unpredictable interpersonal
problems.
In this article and
video, we'll explore a seven-step approach to improving the quality of your
decisions and increasing your chances of success.
7-Step
Decision Strategy
To avoid making a bad
decision, you need to combine a set of decision-making skills into a logical
and orderly process. We recommend the
following seven steps:
1. Examine the situation
in detail.
2. Create a constructive
environment.
3. Create good alternatives.
4. Explore your options.
5. Choose the best
solution.
6. Evaluate your plan.
7. Communicate your
decision and take action
Step
1: Examine The Situation In Detail
Decisions often fail because important
factors are soon overlooked or neglected. So before you decide, you need to
fully understand your situation.
Start by considering the
decision in the context of the problem you are trying to solve. You need to
determine if the problem is a real problem or just a symptom of something
deeper.
Take it for granted. It
may be possible to address your goal on its own, but several interrelated
factors are more likely to need to be considered. For example, changes made in
one department can have a negative effect on other departments, so changes are
counterproductive.
Step
2: Create a constructive environment for your decision
Can you pay the necessary attention to
your decision? Take some time to prepare before immersing yourself in the facts
and figures. Remember that most decisions affect other people as well, so it
helps to create a constructive environment in which we can explore the situation
together and gain support. This is especially true when you need to trust other
people to make the decisions for which you are responsible. You need to decide
who you want to involve in the process and who will be part of the final
decision-making group, which will ideally consist of only five to seven people.
Allow people to
contribute to discussions without worrying that other participants will reject
them and their ideas. Make sure everyone recognizes that the goal is to make
the best possible decision, without guilt.
Step
3: Create Good Alternatives For Decision Making
The wider the options, the better your
final decision. At first, it may seem that generating several different options
complicates your decision-making, but finding alternatives forces you to go
deeper and look at the problem from different angles.
Then it can be useful to
use different creative thinking techniques. This can help you break out of common
thinking patterns and create truly innovative solutions.
Step
4: Explore Your Options
Once you are sure that you have a good selection of
realistic alternatives, it is time to assess the feasibility, risks, and
consequences of each. Almost all decisions involve a degree of risk. You need a
structured approach to assessing threats and the likelihood of adverse events -
and how much they could cost to manage. You will also want to explore the
ethical impact of each option and how it can fit into your personal and
organizational values.
Step
5: Choose The Best Solution
After evaluating the alternatives, the next step is the
decision! If you need to consider different criteria, use decision matrix
analysis so that you can compare them reliably and accurately. Or, to determine
which one should weigh more when making your decision, perform a pairwise
benchmarking.
When anonymity is important, decision-makers hate each
other, or there is a tendency for certain individuals to dominate the process,
use the Delphi technique to make a fair and unbiased decision. Uses discussion
cycles and anonymously written arguments, led by the facilitator. Participants
do not meet and sometimes do not even know who else is involved.
Step
6: Evaluate Your Plan
After all the effort and hard work you've put into
evaluating and selecting alternatives, it can be tempting to move forward at
this stage. But now more than ever is the time to verify your decision. After
all, looking back is good to recognize why things went wrong, but preventing
mistakes is much better! Before you start executing your decision, it's a good
idea to observe it for a long time to make sure you've been thorough and that
there are no common mistakes in the process.
Your final decision is only as good as the facts and
research you've done. Make sure that your data is trustworthy and that you have
done your best not to "choose" the data. This will help you avoid
positive biases, the usual psychological bias when making decisions.
Step
7: Make Your Decision And Act
Once you've made a
decision, you need to communicate it to everyone involved in an interesting,
informative, and inspiring way.
Involve them in
implementing the solution to discuss how and why you arrived at your decision.
The more information you provide about the risks and benefits, the more likely
people are to support you.
Signs
You're Making The Wrong Decision
1.
Your heart says no
Our instincts aren't
always the target, but if you have a strange feeling about someone's request or
the risks involved in taking a new opportunity, work through those feelings
before moving forward.
2.
You are super emotional
It is one thing to be in
harmony with your feelings. It's another thing to let them make important
decisions in your life. Emotional responses are designed to protect us from
danger (eg, jumping out of the lane of an oncoming vehicle rather than stopping
in the middle of a crosswalk). But if we're upset with frustration, fear,
hunger (hunger plus anger), and other intense emotions, we're more likely to
hit "send" if we don't.
3.
Don't tell the whole truth
Withholding information
about decisions you keep from other people can be a sign that you are dead
wrong. “A lie is usually a sign that someone hasn't fully accepted their
situation,” says Lee. It could also indicate that we're not very proud of our
choices — because if we were, wouldn't we want to share them with those we care
about most?
4.
Make decisions very quickly.
Some decisions -
especially important ones - take time to sink into memory and heart. The most
important decisions require a good night's sleep – or some. If you're in a
hurry to make a decision, you're probably making a mistake. Of course, there
are times when you need to act quickly. Whenever possible, you should dedicate
enough time to the process.
5.
Make decisions very
slowly.
The opposite is also
true. If you've been dealing with this long enough - and you know what to do -
some decisions need to be made - even if you don't have all the answers. It was
my fault that I missed the opportunity because I was paralyzed by that decision
and did not make the call I already knew I should - and quite frankly, often,
because I know that the response to the decision will not necessarily be
popular.
6.
You consult with your closest mentors.
Not only do I have to
invite others to the decision-making process, I also have to listen to the
advice of the people I invite. This is another one I learned hard. I rarely
make a decision in which the advisory groups I have hired would advise otherwise.
In fact, I am seeking a unanimous consensus.
Conclusion
To improve
decision-making, you need to improve your ability to predict (how different
choices change the probability of different outcomes) and your judgment (how
desirable each of those outcomes is). While
there are countless ways to work on these two skills, there are three simple
rules that can help the most. Be less confident at first. We are all safer than
we should be at every step of the decision-making process. What else would you
think if you were less sure that A is causing B or that B is better than C?
Second, always ask yourself, "How often does this usually happen?" If
you think that result B is more desirable than result C, ask yourself: how many
times has this happened in the past? Third, improve your understanding of
probability. Research has shown that even basic probability training makes
people better at predictions.
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